“Froth” Getting Some Etymological Play in the NYT

The New York Times has a fun story covering a number of breakout words and phrases for 2205. Our friend Froth made the list. Here is the original story and here is the froth excerpt:

The soap opera that is the housing market.
By DAVID LEONHARDT

ALAN GREENSPAN has earned a reputation in
his 18 years as Federal Reserve chairman as a master of the 50-word
sentence whose meaning is nearly impossible to untangle. Once in a
while, though, he turns a phrase that seems to capture the country’s
economic anxieties.

In response to a question after a speech
in May, Mr. Greenspan said that "at a minimum, there’s a little froth"
in the housing market. He was not the first person to use the word, but
after it passed his lips, it quickly became part of the national
conversation.

Part of its allure is simple: it’s a fun word to
say, one that conjures the image of a baby’s bath or a hot cappuccino.
But "froth" – like "frothy," which has become more common since May -
has the added virtue of describing the nation’s real estate obsession
in a more nuanced way than "bubble" does.

Froth, the
dictionaries say, refers to a bunch of bubbles rather than a single big
one. In May, Mr. Greenspan emphasized that there was no nationwide
housing bubble, a position shared by most economists. If you have owned
a home in Indiana or upstate New York over the last two decades and
watched its value rise little faster than inflation, you understand
this notion better than many big-city residents do.

But the
rapid increases in house values in much of the rest of the country
cannot continue long, Mr. Greenspan added. "It’s hard not to see that
there are a lot of local bubbles," he said.

When prices
continued rising in the weeks that followed, Mr. Greenspan looked as if
he could be repeating his flirtation with bubble-ology almost a decade
ago. In 1996, he asked whether "irrational exuberance" had consumed
stock-market investors, and equity prices around the world briefly
tumbled before resuming their ascent.

Mr. Greenspan then backed off, saying that bubbles usually could not be detected until after they popped.

This
year, however, he continued his gentle warnings, and the housing market
had already begun cooling by the start of summer. Houses now take
longer to sell on average, and prices have stopped rising in some areas.

What happens from here is not clear, but soon it will not be Mr.
Greenspan’s problem. He will retire Jan. 31, to be replaced by Ben S. Bernanke, a White House adviser and former Princeton economist who can become the nation’s new economic phrasemaker.

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Speculative Excesses

Here comes Greenspan with another pithy phrase:
Greenspan says ‘speculative excesses’ create new challenges – Yahoo! News.

WASHINGTON (AFP) – US
Federal Reserve chairman
Alan Greenspan said that the recent economic stability has led to "speculative excesses" that create challenges for the central bank.

Greenspan, in a speech in Washington, repeated many of the themes of a September 27 address in which he warned about speculative investments.

The central bank chief did not talk about the real estate market, although he has in the past warned about "froth" in housing.

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The Sky is, in Fact, Falling

Here’s what happens when an editor tells a reporter, "Go Get Me a ‘The Economy is Going to be Bad’ Story!’" from the Lincoln Journal Star.

Buy now, pay later: It’s been the mantra of American consumers for decades.

The results are obvious in the ballooning balances on credit cards and mortgage loans, and in the expanding U.S. trade deficit, which reflects the nation’s nearly insatiable appetite for cheap, imported goods.

Low interest rates, especially since the end of the 2001 recession, have fed the debt beast at home, allowing American consumers to accumulate nearly $11 trillion in debt as they buy more homes, more cars, more clothes, more dinners out.

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Experts predict what causes could bust the American economy

Here’s some great doomsday froth from the Portsmouth Herald World/National News: Experts predict what causes could bust the American economy.

Why does that matter? Because the more home equity Americans tap now, the less they’ll have in reserve for retirement or for emergencies.

The run-up in home prices – what Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has described as "froth" – increasingly looks like a bubble.

"The bigger bubble is actually in the financing of homes," says economist Ed Yardeni of Oak Associates in Akron, Ohio. "Mortgage lenders have loosened their lending standards. Rather than telling a lot of would-be buyers, particularly in places like California, that they don’t qualify, they’re coming up with all sorts of so-called innovative alternative financing."

So millions are buying homes with no down payments. Or they have adjustable-rate mortgages or interest-only mortgages or optional payment mortgages.

What brings such a great party to an end?

"Interest rates going up just 2 percent would do it," says Peter Morici, a business professor at the University of Maryland in College Park. That, he says, would suppress prices, lower sales and put a real squeeze on those who were marginally qualified to buy because their payments would suddenly go up.

"Some people will lose their homes," Morici says. "Many people will just be hurting."

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Disaster & Froth

Here’s a Reuters take on the effect of Hurricane Katrina on the forth market:

New Orleans and other Gulf Coast areas are now in disaster
recovery mode with floods, fires and evacuations the focus.
Homeowners cannot return to assess what is left of their real
estate, or their jobs.

The one-two punch of job loss and energy price spikes will
at least temporarily slow the U.S. economy, analysts say.

"I think the Fed is going to be hard-pressed to go on
blithely increasing the short rate at every FOMC
(policy-making) meeting as we go through the year," says
Seiders. If long-term and mortgage rates stay lower than
otherwise expected, "it is a major plus for housing."

Fed Chairman Greenspan has warned of "frothy" housing
markets, though stopping short of calling it a national housing
bubble.

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God Bless New Orleans

As the people of the Gulf Coast search through their homes for the living and the dead, as they watch their former homes crumble and wash out, let’s remember that words like "housing" and "market" and "equity" are really just ancillaries.

People need to live somewhere, and yes there is money to be made on that. But people need to live somewhere. God bless them as the try.

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Simma Dahn Nah!

Continuing his recent string of kitchen & food related metaphorical talk, Alan Greenspan nearly quoted an SNL line re: cooling off over the weekend.

Alan Greenspan sounded his clearest warning yet on the dangers of an over-heated US housing market, raising the prospect of falling prices when the boom comes to an end and arguing that it was hard to predict the impact on consumer spending.

Speaking at the end of the
Federal Reserve’s weekend symposium in Jackson Hole, the Fed chairman said: "The housing boom will inevitably simmer down. As part of that process, house turnover will decline from currently historic levels while home price increases will slow and prices could even decrease."

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Frothy Fall?

Here’s a guy in Business Week on froth-naysayer side of the scale:

A Bad August. A Worse September?.

BUYING OPPORTUNITY?  "I always get a little worried in August," says Brent Wilsey, president of Wilsey Asset Management in San Diego, who now advises customers to have about 30% of their portfolios in cash. He thinks higher energy prices will cause businesses to be more careful than usual this September. "I have a cautious view of consumer spending and business expansion plans until energy has stabilized," he says. "No one wants to be brave."

However, Wilsey thinks energy will come down in price as people conserve more, and he expects stocks to rebound after the jitters pass. He plans to use a pullback as an opportunity to buy stocks like U.S. Steel (X ) and Alcoa (AA ) at a cheaper price. He’s encouraged that companies are doing things like buying back stock, increasing dividends, and acquiring new divisions.

Lonski notes that no evidence shows consumers are rolling over. Business sales are growing faster than inventories, which normally signals an economy that’s speeding up (he calls a recent weak durable-goods report a "fluke"). The housing market will benefit from tighter lending terms as the froth dissipates, he believes. And consumer spending will stay strong as the job market continues to improve.

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A warning from Greenspan: South Florida Sun-Sentinel

It’s a real good idea to listen to Alan Greenspan.
A warning from Greenspan: South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Low interest rates have powered the booming housing market. Home sales have hit record highs four years in a row, and house prices are surging. In previous speeches, Greenspan has warned of "froth" and "speculative fervor" gripping some local housing markets.

If house prices fall suddenly or if interest rates rise rapidly, some local housing markets, homeowners and lenders could get clobbered.

"Greenspan is giving individuals ample warning that they need to take that into account," Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Decision Economics, said in an interview. "He’s throwing out a yellow flag of caution.

Stock prices and house prices are factors that Fed policy-makers are increasingly needing to consider when setting interest-rate policy, Greenspan said.

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Hot & Cold Froth in Masachusetts

Here’s a story from Masachusetts that is representative of the mixed housing market. House Sales Slip Again; Condos Surge.

Aug. 24–The Massachusetts real estate market is running hot and cold.

The state’s condominium market continued its blistering, double-digit pace of sales increases last month amid surging demand for luxury, low-maintenance housing. Sales of 2,395 condos in July represented a 12.4 percent jump over July 2004, according to yesterday’s monthly report by the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.

Yet sales of single-family homes slipped 7.4 percent, to 5,328, the third drop in sales from the previous year in the last four months.

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