Here’s a guy in Business Week on froth-naysayer side of the scale:
A Bad August. A Worse September?.
BUYING OPPORTUNITY? "I always get a little worried in August," says Brent Wilsey, president of Wilsey Asset Management in San Diego, who now advises customers to have about 30% of their portfolios in cash. He thinks higher energy prices will cause businesses to be more careful than usual this September. "I have a cautious view of consumer spending and business expansion plans until energy has stabilized," he says. "No one wants to be brave."
However, Wilsey thinks energy will come down in price as people conserve more, and he expects stocks to rebound after the jitters pass. He plans to use a pullback as an opportunity to buy stocks like U.S. Steel (X ) and Alcoa (AA ) at a cheaper price. He’s encouraged that companies are doing things like buying back stock, increasing dividends, and acquiring new divisions.
Lonski notes that no evidence shows consumers are rolling over. Business sales are growing faster than inventories, which normally signals an economy that’s speeding up (he calls a recent weak durable-goods report a "fluke"). The housing market will benefit from tighter lending terms as the froth dissipates, he believes. And consumer spending will stay strong as the job market continues to improve.